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After two years of drought, India has ushered in a normal rainy season this year. Large agrochemical companies that have released quarterly results such as PI Industries, Rallis and Bayer have shown that their turnover and profits have improved. With the advent of the monsoon climate, will the company's sales continue to grow?

Anuj Sethi, senior director of CRISIL, said: "A large amount of inventory and the slow recovery of the global agrochemical market will limit the rapid growth of revenue in the near term. It is expected that the overall revenue growth will remain at 5% to 7% of this fiscal year. In addition, prices are expected to be even higher. Advantageous inputs will be more profitable. In the absence of a large amount of capital expenditures, the credit indicators of agrochemical producers are expected to improve in the medium term, but the high amount of outstanding accounts will bring challenges to working capital Favorable credit policies for domestic exports and longer credit cycles abroad, especially in Latin America, will further reduce product inventories."

In the past two years, inventory levels have risen sharply, most of which are backlogged in distribution channels. As a result, surpluses began to appear this fiscal year, which hindered turnover growth when demand strengthened. “Many distributors bought agrochemical products, but they were severely affected by adverse weather factors such as seasonal rain and hail last year, and the agricultural outlook was unfavorable, resulting in large inventories of agricultural products,” said an industry executive. It is expected that the growth of foreign demand, especially in the Americas and Europe, will remain low, and the recovery speed of Asia-Pacific and Latin America may be faster. The export business, which accounts for 40-45% of the sales of major domestic agrochemical manufacturers, not only faces demand challenges, but also faces currency fluctuations.

Therefore, CRISIL stated, “We believe that under the normal monsoon and the steady growth of foreign demand, the turnover growth is expected to reach 13-14% of the historical level. We believe that more licensing and distribution will be seen in India. Cooperation, outbound transactions may maintain a moderate scale, mainly registration and market access."

Manish Mahawa of the Religare Institute is not so optimistic about the investment in the above-mentioned companies. He said: "Our interactions with traders of agrochemical products indicate that rainfall in southern India is normal, but demand for pesticides has not increased. The industry’s turnover may increase by 12-15% in the September quarter, which is lower than previously expected. -20%."